Growing evidence illustrates the size and character of public-school enrollment declines during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, far less is known about where unenrolled students went. Using unique cross-sector enrollment and mobility data from the state of Hawai`i, this study provides evidence that demographic changes and movement to private schools, out of the state, or to homeschooling did not account for the full loss of public-school students. Many unenrolled students appear to have redshirted or dropped out of formal education during school year (SY) 2020-21. Further, regression analyses with island fixed effects indicate that two pre-pandemic factors predicted school-level enrollment declines: (1) the share of the Pacific Islander students; and (2) whether the school had a high pupil-teacher ratio.
